Ten mega-trends shaping the Catholic church
Print Friendly Version| All Things Catholic by John L. Allen, Jr. | |
| Friday, Dec. 22, 2006 - Vol. 6, No. 16 | |
My next book is titled "The Upside Down Church," a sort of sneak preview of Catholic history in the 21st century. I outline a series of mega-trends which I believe are turning the church on its head, especially with respect to the dominant paradigms in the 40-plus years since the close of the Second Vatican Council (1962-65). In order for that analysis to hold water, however, I have to identify these mega-trends correctly.
By "mega-trend," I mean a deep impulse shaping Catholic thought and life at the universal level, a sort of "tectonic plate" whose shifts lie beneath the fault lines and upheavals of the present. I have in mind not single issues, but currents of history which cause some issues to rise in importance and others to fall. A mega-trend, by the way, does not have to be specifically Catholic, but rather something that affects Catholicism in a significant way. For example, the rise of Islam, especially its more radical forms, certainly belongs on the list.
My request is this: Read this list, and ponder it. Are there major forces I've neglected? Are there items here that don't belong? Does this list correspond with your own sense of what's happening in the church?
Some readers may want to react using the "comments" box below, which will allow a conversation to develop in this space. Others may not want to share their thoughts with the rest of the world, but wouldn't mind passing them along to me. If that's the case, address them to jallen@ncronline.org. Either way, I will be grateful.
The list is not organized in order of importance.
One: The North/South Shift
In 1900, there were 459 million Catholics in the world, 392 million of whom lived in Europe and North America. Christianity 100 years ago remained an overwhelmingly white, first world phenomenon. By 2000, there were 1.1 billion Catholics, with just 380 million in Europe and North America, and the rest, 720 million, in the global South. Africa alone went from 1.9 million Catholics in 1900 to 130 million in 2000, a growth rate of almost 7,000 percent. This is the most rapid and sweeping demographic transformation of Catholicism in its 2,000 year history. Sao Paolo, Jakarta and Nairobi will become what Leuvein, Milan and Paris were in the Counter Reformation period, meaning major centers of pastoral and intellectual energy. Different experiences and priorities will set the Catholic agenda as leaders from Africa, Asia and Latin America rise through the system, reshaping the texture of church life.
Two: Quest for Catholic Identity
Another major force is the relentless press for a stronger sense of Catholic identity, an impulse felt in virtually every area, from liturgy to education, from religious orders to the church's engagement with secular politics. In his famous homily 24 hours before his election as pope, then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger laid out what he saw as the central challenge facing the church: a "dictatorship of relativism," meaning the rejection of objective truth. Like John Paul II before him, Benedict is keenly concerned that Catholics do not assimilate to this broader secular mentality. As the practical translation of this imperative, the church has seen a growing emphasis over the last 25 years on what sociologists call the "politics of identity" -- efforts to reinforce distinctively Roman Catholic language, practices and belief systems, our markers of difference in a rapidly homogenizing world. The emphasis on identity cuts across debates large and small, from whether theologians should have a mandatum from a bishop certifying their orthodoxy, to whether lay people should be allowed to purify the sacred vessels after Mass.
Three: The Rise of Islam
I was tempted to simply write "Regensburg," and leave it at that. If the importance of Islam to the church wasn't already clear, the aftermath of Benedict XVI's Sept. 12 lecture at the University of Regensburg dispelled any doubt. In the same way that the terrorist attacks of 9/11 put Islam, especially its radical currents, at the center of global consciousness, the "9/12" of Regensburg did it for the Catholic church. Especially in the wake of 9/12, Islam is coming to play the role for Catholicism once occupied by Communism, meaning the church's chief ideological rival on the world stage, the great question mark around which many debates revolve. As with Communism, attitudes towards Islam are often markers for deeper options on issues such as the Christian identity of Europe, the limits of inter-faith dialogue, the nature of missionary efforts, and the fate of Christians in the Arab world. Given that Benedict seems determined to take a more challenging stance in Catholic/Muslim relations on both terrorism and religious freedom, there is likely to be further drama ahead.
Four: The Movements
The term "movement" is used loosely (and, in some cases, imprecisely) to refer to a wide variety of new groups in the 20th century, primarily composed of laity: Sant'Egidio, the Neocatechumenate, Focolare, Communion and Liberation, Opus Dei, L'Arche, Schönstatt, Regnum Christi, and others. Though they remain niche phenomena, the movements nevertheless have a high profile due to their passion, their commitment, and the strong patronage they enjoyed under John Paul II. With their visibility and reach expanding, they will increasingly set a tone in terms of the lay apostolate. While it's something of a myth that the movements are predominantly "conservative" (Sant'Egidio and L'Arche, for example, don't fit the bill), they do have a common thread in that their activity is directed more ad extra than ad intra; that is, they're more concerned with changing the world than changing the church. In that sense, the growth of the movements is likely to produce a more outward-looking sense of the lay role; the model of an "empowered" Catholic lay person will not be primarily a DRE or liturgist, but a lawyer or bus driver or stay-at-home mother, striving to transform the secular world from the inside out.
Five: The Biotech Revolution
Given the dizzying pace of scientific change, Catholicism faces a whole new series of ethical headaches. What are the limits, for example, to genetic manipulation of human beings? Which breakthroughs in stem cell research pass doctrinal muster, such as "altered nuclear transfer"? What about calls for "embryo adoption," meaning allowing women (even unwed women, or women in same-sex relationships) to bring embryos to term which would otherwise be destroyed? As science expands its capacity to preserve life, where does the distinction lie between "ordinary" and "extraordinary" measures, between a necessary defense of the right to life and a needless prolongation of suffering? What about genetically modified food, with its potential to feed the hungry, but its uncertain impact on human health and on traditional agricultural techniques? Could condoms be countenanced for a married, heterosexual couple where one partner has HIV/AIDS? All these questions, and scores more, bedevil moral theologians, lay activists, pastors and bishops, pulling Catholic debate into uncharted waters.
Six: The Wireless World
Once upon a time, the clerical caste held a near-monopoly on catechesis, faith formation, education … essentially, on shaping the Catholic imagination. That monopoly has been eroded over the centuries by the invention of the printing press, the rise of a free press in the West, the emergence of theologically sophisticated laity, the spread of independent broadcast outlets, and a host of other factors. Today, anyone who can find their way to a Starbucks with a laptop can be their own publisher. The blogosphere is full of Catholic offerings: "Open Book," "Relapsed Catholic," "The Cafeteria is Closed," "Whispers in the Loggia," "the Curt Jester," to name some of the better-known. The Catholic conversation is a wide-open marketplace, and if bishops want to make themselves heard, it has to be by dint of their message rather than their office. The potential to change the calculus became clear in the Terry Schiavo case, when bloggers did more to mobilize Catholic activism than pronouncements from either the bishops' conference or the local hierarchy.
Seven: The Wojtyla Revolution
Pope John Paul II was an ad extra pope, more concerned with the struggle against Soviet-style Communism or a "culture of death" in the West than he was with the internal affairs of the Catholic church. In effect, John Paul cried basta! ("enough!") to the season of experimentation and reform that followed the Second Vatican Council, calling Catholics to a strong sense of internal unity in order to fuel a more effective engagement with the world outside. If the documents of Vatican II, as well as more amorphous understandings of their "spirit," framed debate in the post-conciliar period, it is the example of John Paul II which is most decisive for the new, "upside down" era. For our purposes, his legacy can be boiled down to a simple formula: end the navel-gazing, stop tinkering with church teachings and structures, and get on with evangelizing the world. Critics would argue that this formula led John Paul to neglect festering internal problems, and that the sexual abuse crisis, to take one example, was the legacy of that neglect. Nevertheless, the Copernican shift of John Paul's papacy was to direct the Catholic gaze to the outside world, to "take it to the street."
Eight: Globalization
Growing integration of global finance, politics, and culture marks the single most defining characteristic of our era, creating unparalleled wealth and opportunity for some, while making the misery of others a permanent source of outrage and instability. While one billion people enjoy standards of living never before achieved, another billion people get by on less than $1 a day, and some 10 million children each year die from avoidable, poverty-related illnesses. Those inequities are generating deep concern both for moral and security reasons, and they tend to engage leaders in the global South in a special way, given that the losers in the new global game tend to be predominantly in developing nations. As Southern voices become more vocal within Catholicism, therefore, concern for what John Paul II called the "globalization of solidarity" as well as markets will become an increasingly central Catholic theme. There will likely continue to be widely differing Catholic opinions on how best to express the church's social teaching in public policy, and this debate will intensify.
Nine: Polarization and its Discontents
One of the defining features of the post-conciliar era in Roman Catholicism has been a kind of Catholic tribalism, pitting left against right, liturgically oriented Catholics against social activists, local churches against Rome, and so on down the familiar litany of internal fractures. It's not just that there is division, a fact of ecclesiastical life that dates back to the Acts of the Apostles. Today's Catholic tribes attend their own conferences, read their own journals, applaud their own heroes, and have developed their own languages, so that on the rare occasions when they encounter Catholics of other perspectives it can actually be difficult to communicate. In many ways, Catholics of all these tribes have been unwittingly evangelized by the secular culture, seeing the church as one more battlefield upon which interest group struggles are fought. Yet these divisions are also puzzling and disheartening to many Catholics, especially those under 40 who were born after Vatican II, and there are indications of a growing desire for a different way of managing relationships in the church.
Ten: The Sexual Abuse Crisis
Though the epicenter of the sexual abuse crisis remains the English-speaking world, the phenomenon is global. Its toll has been enormous, above all in the United States. It includes settlements of more than $1 billion and the bankruptcy of, to date, four American dioceses (Portland, Davenport, Spokane, and Tucson). More deeply, the crisis has badly damaged the church's public image, caused a loss of confidence in the leadership of the church, injured relationships between bishops and priests, and made it much more difficult for good priests to carry out their ministry. All of this was brought back into focus recently when the Preacher of the Papal Household, Capuchin Fr. Rainero Cantalamessa, suggested the need for penance related to the scandals. To date, there is still debate within the church as to the causes and context of the crisis, but there seems little question that the fallout from this trauma will be with Catholicism for some time.
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Your list is excellent.
Your list is excellent. Please continue to resist the pressure to prioritize them, which would dilute the inportance of all but the first one or two.
The place of women in the church and the new financial crisis need to be added or integrated into the existing list, and, finally, the rapidly increasing lack of priests, resulting in the closing and clustering of parishes, with the huge implications for less personal presence and ministry, alienation, etc.
The financial crisis is two-fold:
A) the lack of funds resulting from the pedophile crisis (bankruptcies, lower collections, etc.)
B) the growing awareness of financial impropriety (e.g., 85 percent of U.S. dioceses report embezzlements, NCR, 12-21-06)
The ten trends identified
The ten trends identified are pertinent.
My comments tend to add my insight into several of these trends.
(1) The demographics suggest that the official Church will remain very conservative, if not more conservative. The implications for Catholics in Europe and the United States are serious since the cognitive dissonance will be significant.
(2) Christian theology is complex (maybe too complex given that God is Other) and even though more are well-educated lay theologians, the gap between those who understand and the others results in disinterest by the majority. Islam is theologically simple. The Baltimore Catechism did a lot of harm, but it did convey a degree of knowledge that could be massed-produced. We have no alternative today. In short, Christianity will become more remote in time from the lives of the majority.
John, You may want to
John,
You may want to consider tucking some mention of an organizational redesign into your schema.
I would submit that the Catholic Church, at least in North America and Europe, is experiencing a huge restructuring of the practice of orders and the phenomenon of profession to religious life. The change that is happening represents a transformation from medieval systems grounded in mandated lifelong celibacy and absolute obedience to a world of a married clergy and management by concensus.
Make no mistake. The Trojan Horse is already within the city walls. By 2010 there will be more permanent deacons in the United States than active, celibate diocesan priests. Former Episcopal priests who have pledged allegiance to Rome currently work as priests in parishes and universities. The issue to consider is not about making manditory celibacy a prerequisite for orders. That discussion was settled with the advent of permanent deacons and Episcopal Catholic priests.
The sea-change coming to the practice of orders and the formal religious life will lead to a rethinking of parish structures in the United States. Catholic parishes are presently ten times larger than the average Protestant congregation. The continued decline in the number of active diocesan priests - to a total of 16,000 by 2010 and perhaps 11,000 by 2025 - suggests a future of even larger parishes. In this future of super mega-parishes celibate Catholic priests might function as sacramental chaplains to congregations that would be pastored by a team of permanent deacons. The coming Catholic management model may be similar to the role of the Methodist circuit-rider in the nineteenth century.
Best wishes, John, for a happy Christmas.
Regards,
Joe
Saving Vatican II … As a
Saving Vatican II …
As a middle-aged Catholic religious, I feel a certain anxiety about the tendency toward restorationism among younger Catholics and the conservatism of Third World Catholicism. Despite clear papal leadership in the areas of ecumenism, justice and peace (albeit rightly critical of certain forms of liberation theology), and respect for the environment, the new conservatives seem, at best, indifferent to these concerns. There is also a certain tendency toward ahistoricism in the kind of apologetics most appealing to the young, and sometimes I wonder what is behind the rubricism of today’s seminarians and younger priests (although I don’t assume it’s always or necessarily pathological). All these things I find disturbing.
Yet, I blame us Baby-Boomer Catholics, especially priests and religious, for this state of affairs. Ironically, it has been my age cohort that has sabotaged “the Spirit of Vatican II” by destroying our own credibility, and, therefore, our ability to lead and form Gen Xers and Millennials with a better sense of balance. Instead of being progressives who can demonstrate faithful continuity with the tradition that we have wanted to reform, all too often we have acted like rebellious, pouty, self-righteous adolescents. We have gutted our churches, discarded cherished symbols, and made our liturgies banal. We complain about a vocations crisis, yet we bad mouth the Church in public all the time and consistently read bad faith into the motives and actions of bishops and popes (“damned if they do; damned if they don’t”) without questioning our own. Seeing only the negative, we have passed on precious little of the tradition, much less done so with integrity, joy, and pride. We have replaced the old triumphalism with its equally ugly opposite, self-contempt. And then we’re surprised that the few remaining still interested in religious vocations are the ones who are immune to what we have to say, those who have had to self-educate themselves as best as they could without us?
We have the gall to claim that the leadership of the Church is obsessed with sexual and reproductive issues, instead of recognizing, indeed, shouting from the roof tops that it is our sexually disordered society that has projected its own obsession onto the Church’s rather broad teaching (ask any well-educated orthodox Protestant who reads something besides AP releases and Time magazine and you’ll find someone impressed by the admirable comprehensiveness of Catholicism). Despite the role of powerful lavendar mafias in many a diocesan chancery and provincial headquarters in making the clerical sexual abuse scandal possible, we remain in denial that the condoning of homosexual behavior is at least one major factor in the crisis (To be fair, some progressive religious sisters do voice, in private, deep concerns about those male congregations that are disproportionately gay in number and in culture).
These are only two of the many problems in the Church because the generation running the Church for the last few decades has been so thoroughly secularized in its general mentality that it doesn’t even realize it. We talk like accommodationist liberal protestants, speaking of “relevance” and “gospel freedom” but, in truth, we have craved human respectability from the secular left and idolatrously worshipped individualism.
I am not surprised, John, that you have omitted feminism as one of the mega-trends. Feminism has made and will continue to make positive contributions to society and Church, but its continued relevance for the latter will depend more on how it helps develop the mission ad extra than on the increasingly unwelcome divisiveness it promotes internally. The backbone of the revolution has osteoporosis. In 25 years, the now smaller groups of conservative apostolic sisters will noticeably eclipse the aging liberal sisters both in numbers and energy. This is not an entirely good thing because their praiseworthy social activism and witness among the poor will be missed. However, one can saw on the branch one is sitting on for just so long … .
Yet, I am more than a little hopeful that the new conservatism does not devolve into a full blown reactionary or fundamentalist form of the faith. First of all, we give the faithful among the young (i.e., the ones we have not already lost to the world) too little credit if we fail to realize that they are quite naturally capable of, even inclined toward, a healthy kind of tolerance for diversity that is superior to the permissiveness and mindless (i.e., politically correct) pluralism of the society they have grown up in. From a systems theory viewpoint, the rigidity we see—or imagine in our fear—is often but a reaction to my generation’s disregard for roles and boundaries on the basis of quasi-scientific analyses and ideological deconstructions not informed by faith and revelation. Now, the concern that the new generation does not appear very committed to dialogue is a valid one. But it’s not like they have very good role models in my generation. Instead, we have acclaimed as “prophets” men and women who diss the pope as if he were some kind of ecclesiastical George W. Bush; come down hard on the bishops without displaying the kind of charity, respect, and support that we expect them to win us over with; and then we lionize groups like Call to Action and Voice of Faithful who claim to be for dialogue but who opportunistically push hidden agendas. The young can see through the hypocrisy, you know.
Secondly, as you have suggested, the new lay movements really do have the Spirit behind them. Thirdly, the shape of Vatican II at century’s end may also be influenced by what takes place within the religious orders, i.e., by the ones that survive. A number of provinces from a few of the older religious orders (deep in tradition while committed to engagement)—the Dominicans being perhaps the most notable among them—are learning to foster a necessary dialogue between generations, young, middle, and old. Success in mastering the art of fraternal dialogue (first among the friars themselves, then with the nuns, sisters, and laity) and developing the kind of trust necessary to make dialogue fruitful (despite legitimate diversities in vision and emphasis) has the potential to model and then effect powerful, constructive changes in the quality of leadership as well as in the structures of governance in the Church (especially if /when the Western Church moves to the sensible Eastern model of married diocesan priests and celibate bishops), plus ensure a full appropriation and implementation of the Second Vatican Council. The triumph of conversion and character over politics and prejudices is what the religious orders will have to offer, indeed if they are to survive at all.
And, oh yes, Merry Christmas!
A son of St. Dominic
I have two items which may
I have two items which may be implicit in your list, but I think should be explicit. One is the rising empowerment of women in the world. They have been suppressed throughout history, but now they are finding their voice more and more. This will be threatening to many in the church and its hierarchy, but will become a tidal wave in the 21st century. As such, I think the support of a male-only priesthood will decline over the century and perhaps by 2100 we will see women priests.
With the sexual abuse crisis, celibacy and sexuality are issues that are having a large influence on younger Catholics. The church's high priority focus on sexual issues detracts from the church's social message and concern for the poor and for those suffering from political and economic oppression . The hierarchy's teaching on birth control is not accepted by a large majority of Catholics because it is not consistent with the experiences and knowledge of those who are in the married state. The next generation is asking: what is the focus of the Church? Is it on the gospel of Jesus? or on sexual issues?
BENEDICT XVI and his
BENEDICT XVI and his powerful impact on the Church and society for generations to come: this is one of those seminal moments in history you have missed. This Pope will go go down in history as Benedict the teacher, Benedict the poet, Benedict the Word magician. He has shaken up the Western ideology of secularism (reason without faith) and dared to confront the Muslims of our day (faith without reason) as no other modern leader has had the courage to do. Now, both the secularists and the Muslims of good will are beginning to respect him, admire him and are willing to listen to him. Keep your eye on Benedict.
Gino Dalpiaz
Scalabrini House of Theology
5121 S. University Avenue
Chicago, IL 60615
773-684-5230
John as a catholic from
John as a catholic from India, I can actually feel this pulse of a renewed search for catholic Identity among the 17 million Catholics here in India.
One thing I need to point out is the work done for "Inculturating" the Catholic Faith, especially with regard to the various spiritualities in India and on the subcontinent.The movement for Inculturation is moving beyond the superficial replacing of candles with a Diya (traditional Indian Lamp) and vestments with a saffron shawl to a deeper understanding and appreciation of the cultures n religious traditions in India...and to an expression of the Christian faith through this culture.
for eg: we have a whole genre of art, the "Indian Cristian Art" and loads of religious and sacred music in the tribal style due to its use in the Liturgy.
The movements too are reaching India, we now have the largest Catholic Retreat Centre in the world, The Divine Retreat Centre, in the southern Indian state of Kerala.
This is an excellent and
This is an excellent and thought-provoking list, but I found one thing missing. I don't know how this would be formulated as a mega-trend, I guess it's more a question: will the Church, led by the bishops, practice the teachings of Christ as well as preach the teachings of Christ? That is, will our orthodoxy be fulfilled and completed by our orthopraxis?
For example, the Church preaches the importance of chastity, but bishop after bishop closed his eyes and did nothing about the clergy sexual abuse problem. Here in the US, the bishops are guilty of material cooperation with the evil of unjust war. I know that lately they have been bragging about their alleged peacemaking, but only one bishop issued a canonical declaration forbidding participation in the Iraq War. The conference statements on the issue take advocate moral relativism, "we don't like the war, but if you disagree, that's fine with us."
History is waiting to judge the Catholic Church not only by our words, but also by our deeds, and this is something the bishops should consider. I think it was St. John Chrysostom who said something about the road to hell was paved with the bones of priests and lined with the skulls of bishops.
Bob Waldrop
Oscar Romero Catholic Worker House, Oklahoma City
http://www.justpeace.org
John, This merely may be the
John,
This merely may be the "issue de jour" but what about the "new" atheism, much more aggresive and in your face and willing to challenge the up-to-now unquestioned acceptance of religion as a positive force in society. Witness the immense popularity of Richard Dawkins' "The God Delusion" and Sam Harris' "The End of Faith" and "Letter to a Christian Nation". In some ways this may tie in with the North-South divide within Christianity and also the fear engendered by the growth of militant Islam. We may see not only a more secularized First World but one where all religions are considered "bad religion".
Msgr. Michael J. Alliegro
Metuchen, NJ
John There are several
John
There are several themes you did not mention. One is the passing of the generations raised in the pre-Vatican II Church. How many of us have been to church events and almost every person there was over fifty? As those who remember life before Vatican II die out, what does this mean for the Catholic Church? Another theme is environmentalism. If even fundamentalists are getting the environmental bug and we are moving out of the age of denial about global warming, we will have a new set of priorities that even those who think in terms of centuries--that would be the centuries past--will not be able to ignore. Another is the place of women in the Roman Catholic Church. This may not be the golden age of feminism, but with millions of educated women entering adulthood feminism is not going to disappear.
Pax,
Steve
I like your idea of
I like your idea of megatrends. I would just add to the need for Catholic Identity that Vatican II be part of that Identity.It seems to me that ecumenism and involvement with the world is also part of our Identity as Catholics.
I think it would be
I think it would be interesting to look forward at another trend: the evolution of the petrine ministry in an ecumenical age. Each pope since Paul VI has taken incremental steps away from the triumphalism of the papacy, some more symbolic, some more substantive: Paul VI stopped using the tiara and the lengthy list of titles, John Paul I did away with the coronation, John Paul II called for a reassessment of the petrine ministry, Benedict did away with the tiara on his coat of arms and delegated some ceremonies such as beatifications. In the area of ecumenism, each also took incremental steps. Paul VI's famous gift of his ring to the Archbishop of Canterbury, John Paul II's practice of giving pectoral crosses to Anglican bishops, returning relics to the Orthodox, involving Anglicans and Orthodox in the Holy Year ceremonies, for example.
How might such incremental steps be continued? Will the tiara disappear next from seals and letterheads? What might the next steps be in the popes reaching out to Orthodox and Anglicans and others? What further major developments might follow on the scale of the Joint Declaration on Justification? Few people realize we already officially permit a certain level of intercommunion with other Christians; how might that be expanded incrementally?
It's a lot, but since you've set yourself the goal of looking a century forward, I think these would be fascinating prognostications!
I think that the 10
I think that the 10 Mega-Trends as noted are important. But I think that trends (1) and (9) point to potential conflicts that could be the most explosive of all. Just as conservative and liberal Episcopalians are breaking up over social issues - and along a North - South geographical divide, I can foresee the same thing happening to the Catholic faith. The developing world is and will likely remain extremely conservative -political social activism notwithstanding. Europe and North America show no signs of becoming less secular. The money will remain in the North - the number of adherents will continue to explode in the South. And a tipping point may emerge when the first Pope from the third world is elected - most likely in the first quarter of the 21st century.
I can't really follow your
I can't really follow your point two, 'Quest for Catholic Identity." In the first place, I don't see the connection between eg opposition to relativism, markers of difference, and permission for lay people to purify vessels. I don't get what you mean by 'Catholic Identity.' In the second place, so far as I follow, it's by analogy with the very clear sense of Catholic intellectual identity from, say, Aeterni Patris to, say, Vatican II. Intellectually, a Catholic was a Thomist, a realist, an Incarnationalist. I can't say I observe the re-emergence of any such clear intellectual identity amongst Catholics at large. It's not just that a Catholic is as likely to be a relativist as their secular peers, but that, with the development of theological pluralist, even a non-relativist intellectual Catholic is just as likely to be a Heideggarian, an Augustinian, a Rahnerian or a von Balthasarian as a Thomist. Even if one set Catholic intellectual identity at a low level, like 'non-relativism,' the educational means for producing such an end are not in place, whether in schools, universities, teacher training colleges, or seminaries. Unless, by the grace of God we get a pope who makes all the seminaries teach von Balthasar :) I can't see the return of a uniform Catholic identity.
I wonder too about your point six, The Wireless World. How much effect does chatting in comboxes (like this) have on anything outside the virtual reality of the internet? Is blogging (no offence meant), even by the most high-minded Catholics, largely or partly a form of self-advertisment? And is there anything really new in the kind of influence the internet has - Did the journalism of Chesterton and Belloc have more effect on public opinion than the pronouncements of the bishops of their day?
I'd cut those two, and put in two of the proposals above -ecumenism and prosperity. Catholic-Orthodox relations are more impacted by Islam than many Orthodox publically admit - the Orthodox in the Middle East and perhaps Turkey too probably need the partnership of the RC church in order to survive, and I suspect Patriarch Bartholomew and the Patriarch of the Greeks know that. In other words, intolerance of Christians in Islamic countries and the fact that the RCs alone have the public profile to combat this, may very well do much to push the two churches together. Theological differences may seem less important when it's a question of survival. Some disaffected Anglican groups may eventually come over en block, too, but I wouldn't count on it, unless, as in Africa, they too come under pressure from Islam.
The 'Prosperity' issue raises questions about how long the Church will continue to grow in the South. Once, in 20 to 30 years time, Africa begins to achieve the levels of prosperity of Europe and America in the 1960s, perhaps they will go through their own period of bourgeois disaffection with Catholic commitment entailing a 'Catholic identity'. I'm not won over by Philip Jenkins, because I can easily imagine the third world going through its own 'how far can you go' period, in 25 years time.
John, And yes, a most
John,
And yes, a most blessed Christmas. Thank you for your column and the opportunity it affords.
Peter
Another thought. Consider
Another thought.
Consider the role of feminization in the church's development. The inclusive language debates, rights of ordination, role of women in church administration (an in some areas, sacraments), decline of convent membership, etc. all seems to play a role in how the church will be in the future
BMD
John This is all well and
John
This is all well and good, but what about the issue of doctrine? Celibacy is not a matter of faith, it is disciplinary, was was pointed out in another column. What about the matter of apostolic succession - priests were not always ordained, they were chosen by a particular congregation for that congregation. What about the matter of communion: how did present doctrine develop? How can we be reconciled with our Orthodox brethren is the matter on The Immaculate Conception isn't addressed?
Maybe the over-all classification for such matters could be entitled an historical perspective of doctrine development within the Catholic religion.
Peter
Hi John, Your idea of 21st
Hi John,
Your idea of 21st century megatrends is interesting. Thanks for starting this dialogue. In connection with some of the other commenters, I would propose a trend that underlies many of those you describe. Perhaps you could call it, “the war between the Church and modernity.”
When Benedict XVI arrayed the Church against “the dictatorship of relativism”, he revived a 400 year old argument between the Church and the modern world. Whether it was with the advocates of the Reformation or with scientists and philosophers like Descartes, Galileo, and Spinoza, the Church has been reacting against new information and theories about reality for centuries. Some of this information gets integrated into the Church’s understanding of truth; at other times, the Church denies, refutes, or persecutes before it accepts. In the last 100 years, the flow of modernity has turned into a torrent by new understandings of science, technology, and art. On issues like the nature of homosexuality, this torrent of new information and perceptions stimulates extreme cultural resistance, because it upsets so many assumptions about identity and belief.
Vatican II represented an attempt to integrate identity and belief by integrating the Church with the modern world. But the early results were unbalanced by this torrent of modernity and became way too scary for the men who lead our church. Now, church leaders in the Vatican, dioceses, and parishes are slowly covering air holes that Vatican II punched open. This triumph of restoration will be fully supported by many in the Global South, and it opens the opportunity for union with the Orthodox mentioned by another commentor. Already, religious liberals are being dismissed as being irrelevant compared to the vast numbers of orthodox or fundamentalist believers in other parts of the world. This counterrevolution has been so successful that I wouldn’t list #9 as a Catholic megatrend for the 21st century; progressives and liberals are becoming more of a historical footnote, with the survivors going underground or seeking refuge in the religious orders, the lay communities, or denominations like the Episcopal Church.
This counter-revolution will hurt the near term health of the Church, because continuing changes in technology and perception are creating a cacophony of contradictions that will keep generating painful “acting out” and sin by church leaders. If the priesthood stays in the closet on sexuality, for example, the sex scandals and the spread of AIDs among Catholics in Africa are likely to continue. If the Church continues to restore the traditional liturgy and suppresses intellectual inquiry, teaching, and preaching, we’ll wind up with an alienated laity which leaves behind a remnant of intolerant fundamentalists inside shrinking parishes. The Church’s sense of being persecuted by secular society may intensify as its understanding of the truth increasingly conflicts with reality as perceived in the secular world. Stifling modernity within the Church leaves it less credible to give witness outside of the Church, whatever its success at attracting new converts who want to escape from the ambiguity and existentialism of modern life.
In the longer term, we have Christ’s promise that the Church will survive. By the end of this century, the intensity of pain generated by the contradictions of its war with the modern world may call forth visionary leadership in the Church again. Like Francis of Assisi, that leadership is more likely to appear from outside than from within the increasingly rigid and sterile clerical system.
Merry Christmas,
Steve Schewe
Regarding the polarization
Regarding the polarization trend -- yes it's been here for a very long time. I've heard that Barak Obama said one reason for his popularity is that he is younger than the boomers who are still fighting over the issues of the sixties. Younger people aren't into that dissention. I believe there is a lot of truth in that. Just wondering where the young Catholics are going.....
I think a trend that is
I think a trend that is missing here is "prosperity." Despite the many areas of the planet that are still desperately poor (and I'm not meaning to under-rate their problems) the overall global trend is towards increasing wealth for increasing numbers of people.
We have the historically unprecedented situation of having BILLIONS of people who are at least fairly comfortable and fairly secure. And the dangers and opportunities facing us because of this are huge.
One of the dangers is just that security is bad for our souls, both in the religious sense and the more general sense of our moral character. And I think what is happening in Europe is a good example of how big the danger is, with loss of faith, loss of the will to defend their own civilization, loss of creativity and joy, and ongoing demographic collapse. Europe has a mania for cradle-to-grave security, but it was only the huge post-war economic expansion that made it possible for them to indulge this hunger. They are the canary in this coal mine.
Newman, greatest of seers, was exploring this 150 years ago. He wrote in a sermon: "I must say plainly this, that fanciful though it may appear at first sight, the comforts of life are the main cause of our want of love of God; and, much as we may lament and struggle against it, till we learn to dispense with them in good measure, we shall not overcome it. Till we, in a certain sense; detach ourselves from our bodies, our minds will not be in a state to receive divine impressions, and to exert heavenly aspirations. A smooth and easy life, an uninterrupted enjoyment of the goods of Providence, full meals, soft raiment, well-furnished homes, the pleasures of sense, the feeling of security, the consciousness of wealth,—these and the like, if we are not careful, choke up all the avenues of the soul, through which the light and breath of heaven might come to us. ..."
John Weidner
http://www.randomjottings.net/
Peace and Good to All. A
Peace and Good to All.
A thought on prosperity, the search of Mary and Joseph for a room, and the following quote from WIDER:
The richest 2% of adults in the world own more than half of global household wealth according to a path-breaking study released today by the Helsinki-based World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University (UNU-WIDER).
The most comprehensive study of personal wealth ever undertaken also reports that the richest 1% of adults alone owned 40% of global assets in the year 2000, and that the richest 10% of adults accounted for 85% of the world total. In contrast, the bottom half of the world adult population owned barely 1% of global wealth.
The research finds that assets of $2,200 per adult placed a household in the top half of the world wealth distribution in the year 2000. To be among the richest 10% of adults in the world required $61,000 in assets, and more than $500,000 was needed to belong to the richest 1%, a group which — with 37 million members worldwide — is far from an exclusive club.
The UNU-WIDER study is the first of its kind to cover all countries in the world and all major components of household wealth, including financial assets and debts, land, buildings and other tangible property.
No small challenge, to change this situation.
Every Christmas blessing,
Fr John Andersen,
Iquitos, Peru
I hope you will include the
I hope you will include the rise of the voice of the Catholic laity through organizations such as Catholics Speak Out, Voice of the Faithful, Call to Action (whose members, I read have been excommunicated). With such powerful voices as Bishop Tom Gumbleton, Joan Chittister and many other religious among those excommunicated, I can only feel in very good company. I do think these voices are and will continue to be heard.
John An issue that I do not
John
An issue that I do not see you addressing but which I consider definitive is whether the Church of the twenty-first century will end up as an inclusive, embracing body as outlined by Vatican II or as a restricted, select, and severely "denominational" and "pure" small church of "true" believers. I think the jury is very much still out on the issue and I have very little confidence in the outcome.
Colin
John - You've put together a
John -
You've put together a good list. I suggest you consider the impact of the turmoil engulfing mainline Protestant demoninations, particularly the Anglican, torn as it is over the traditional Christian understanding of sin. Will large parts of those communions turn to Rome?
Also, with an aging hardline leadership and capitalism rapidly taking root there, will China open up for evangelization?
Thank you for your consistently thoughtful writing.
Merry Christmas!
This is a pretty
This is a pretty comprehensive list of key issues. Even so, there are bound to be others. For instance, you give considerable weight to Catholic/Islamic relations but make no specific mention of ecumenical relations. And yet if at some stage there were to be a rapprochement between the Catholic and Orthodox Christians, this would inevitably be on the basis of a 'developed' understanding of the Petrine ministry which might very well fit more comfortably with what you say under sections 4, 7 & 9 than does the the present Catholic understanding. I mention Orthodox Christians because of their numbers. On a smaller scale, the same might be said of the rapidly unravelling Anglican Communion. Of course the likelihood of an early Catholic/Orthodox or Catholic/Anglican rapprochement may seem to be fairly remote if one thinks, as Catholics tend to, of an Orthodox or Anglican Church. The reality is that both of these 'communions' are more or less loose church confederations, significant elements of which might under certain conditions move quite rapidly towards full 'communion with Rome.'
Stephen Wikner
The youth! I agree with
The youth! I agree with Sophie that young Catholics deserve their own trend. It cannot be neglected that they are the thriving force of both the movements and the Wojtyla revolution (remember them praying at saint Peter's square when he passed away?). In fact, many young catholics I know hardly had any religious upbringing. They chose to learn more about the church they were baptized in and take the faith they received very seriously. They grew up in a globalizing, wireless world and are the force that has to address the major issues you mention. And let's not forget about the World Youth Days too, which are too date the largest gatherings known to mankind.
Yep. And let's not forget
Yep. And let's not forget that a lot of youth have left the Church, but most likely not because of the Church, but because their parents probably never stressed it at home. But the ones who have remained, have remained faithfully. God Bless John Paul II!!!
Hermeneutic of Continuity
In my family our kids have
In my family our kids have had the Catholic faith sressed at home. They all have had at least a k-12 Catholic education. All but one are now separated to varying degrees from the church I love so much. By and large it is the Catholic education which they blame.
Erv Sanders
I think you over-rate John
I think you over-rate John Paul II. I think he will diminish as time passes.
The sexual revolution has affected all, including the Church. I think that revolution is more important than the sexual abuse crisis.
Perhaps the coming financial scandal will be worse; we shall see.
A very politically incorrect MERRY CHRISTMAS.
CQ
I wonder if there isn't one
I wonder if there isn't one that was called for by VII, but in reality has been denied. It is basically in the government of the church. VII called for both subsidiarity and collaboration. Subsidiarity--that items that come up for development or that cause problems, be handled on the lowest level possible.
One of the earmarks of JPII's reign has been just the opposite--he did not start it, but made it very dramatic. I suspect, this is the influence of having lived for much of his priesthood under a communist civil government. In communism, everything is handled and decided by the central government. Even though, JPII worked hard against communism, his style of government in the church, I see as very much like the communist system--i.e. everything is handled by the central office, the lower ranks of government (in this case bishops) do not seem to be trusted to make the decisions.
Collaboration--that major decisions are to made with a real sharing of power among the bishops, cardinals, and pope. Again the centralization of the church government in all decisions have to come out of Rome have basically killed this principle. Sometimes, it appears that even token consultation is ignored in the decision making process. With true collaboration, infallibility would not even be called on. The decisions would come from a real consensus (not vote) of the bishops &/or their conferences around the world. Nor would large segments of the church seem to not have a voice (e.g. women).
These two items, I think, form one big area where a mega-trend in the church is to deny what VII asked for.
Shouldn't "The Wojtila
Shouldn't "The Wojtila Revolution" read "The Wojtila Restauration"? I miss mentioning the loss of an entire generation of catholics in Europe just because of this restauration. We begged for a dialogue. Never got one. Most voted with their feet. Our children saw this and are disgusted. They threw all religion aside. Fundamentalistic moslim behaviour finished the job.This loss of European catholics is taken for granted. Let's go on,new evangelisation with the "truth" as it was put in "stone" around 400 AD.
Religion has become a synonym for war.
I miss mentioning the loss
I miss mentioning the loss of an entire generation of catholics in Europe just because of this restauration. We begged for a dialogue. Never got one.
Hi:
Can you clarify specifically what you are talking about?
Hermeneutic of Continuity
Mr. Allen: I want to thank
Mr. Allen:
I want to thank you in particular for #7, the Woytyla Revolution. Viva la Revolucion! It is the "early forties and under" crowd who are called the "JP II Generation" and we take to heart this call to the new evangelization of John Paul the Great!
Hermeneutic of Continuity
In the last sentance of
In the last sentance of trend #9 you mention Catholics under 40 - I think they deserve a trend all their own - I work with many of this age group and I find that they are a very different breed of Catholic and exciting to be with - I would love to live long enough to see how the church in my own country (US) will be when they take roles of leadership - they defy the labels of "conservative" and "liberal". The other trend I find exciting is the "minority majority" trend in the US (and perhaps in some European churches) where Hispanic and Asian Catholics are starting to become the majority of Catholics in some areas.
John, If you are going to
John, If you are going to use the Sexual abuse Crisis, you must use the Financial Fraud Crisis which will loom even larger and affect many more catholics.
Love, John
See my website: Sacred Quest at www.torchlake.com/poetman
dear john---you may be too
dear john---you may be too close to rome and not close enough to home...alt ten:
1 universal catholic american discomfort with lack of accountability and hierarchal stone walling in priest abuse crisis...not to mention all the money and also not to mention something never mentioned: the vast overwhelming criminal wrongdoing which goes unpunished and remains difficult to explain to children- even those not abused by priests- asking questions about why bishops and cardinals are above the law...also note it is getting harder and harder for the vast mainstream constituency to grin and bear it as cardinals and bishops keep telling stories that turn out not to be true...contrast the sprawling catholic scandal with the secular media reaction to mark foley...meaning there is still much more piper for the church to pay as the scandal now looks certain to stretch into the next decade...and do not rule the growing possibility of hierarchal indictments
2 first world discontent with top down papal authority which is the trunk root of the secular sweep through europe which, in turn, is building american momentum away from strict church as american cafeteria catholics abound
3 da vinci code book sales demonstrating that in defiance of all church wrath people will plow through even a somewhat stilted narrative to be enthralled by even a fictional speculation that Jesus was a straight guy who liked girls enough to actually marry one...that the movie did well in secular europe and not so well domestic u.s. does not alter the church changing fact that millions and millions of people have widely embraced a defiantly heretical chronicle accusing church leaders of supressing women for centuries...this then may be what more and more women truly think as they sit silent in the pews
4 the decline in the number of new priests means a lay takeover of both the pulpuit and local church administration is now inevitable, which in turn means, that like it or not, a final reformation is coming
5 rise of lay activity in the 'secret church'providing core activists with a counterpoint outlet for frustrations about all the mainstream rule breaking and disaffection around them...but note that in this category there will soon be a spate of scandals involving harrassment and criminal acts against priest abuse victims...meaning that opus dei is doing more than count bingo receipts
6 third world conversion explosion delivering two thirds of the total church population while 'old church' first world hierarchy remains in place thus setting the table for a third world/ first world showdown in rome
7 papal insensitivity toward the first world/ third world clash of civilizations which is daily costing american lives in iraq and afghanistan as the pope's 9/12 remarks will hound him forever...muslim extremists will never let the insult be forgotten as from their perspective it seemed heaven sent...if the Pope had been hoping to play a role in building bridges, his invocation of the crusades exploded that opportunity on a permanent basis---american catholics with relatives fighting in iraq and afghanistan pray the Pope will keep his peace on the matter of Muhammed...it is stunning that with one quick scholarly footnote the Pope slammed the door to dialogue in his own face...with American lives hanging in the balance, this papal mistake is not a small thing despite the hopeful rationalizations
8 continued traditional catholic hierarchal opposition to new science which used to mean the world was flat and now means dont use condoms
9 the anarchy of free speech propelled by internet and other new media now surrounds the hierarchy in a 22nd psalm of heresy
10 that catholics will continue to obsese about church at the expense of focusing on Jesus in combination with the above 9 items foretells that by 2033 the final reformation will be accomplished...this Pope and his successor will be seen as the authors of their own ending...out of this will emerge a new American Catholic Church...governed by at least partial democracy...with the Cardinals continuing to serve not unlike england's house of lords